Exploring the Potential Uses of Cybersecurity and Digitalization Metrics to Determine Cyber Capabilities

This study examines the extent to which individual cybersecurity and digitalization metrics can predict which side will have supremacy in cyber operations during an armed conflict. Specifically, in the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the metrics currently used do not always provide a reliable prediction of how successfully a target can resist cyberattacks. For example, based on the 2021 edition of the International Telecommunication Union Cyber­security Index, Russia ranked 5th and Ukraine 78th, while the 2024 edition no longer includes a ranking, but Ukraine has been placed in the T3 group and the Russian Federation in T2. Based on publicly available sources, there does not appear to be such a large difference between the two sides’ preparedness in practice. In this research, metrics on cyber capabilities available from 2020 to the present day are compared with information on attack and defense capabilities, and based on this comparison, the reliability of the metrics is assessed.
Keywords: cybersecurity, digitalization, cyber capability, metrics, cyber operations